While Smer was still in the lead when the last poll was conducted, we actually expect another party to win: OľaNO, which translates to Ordinary People and Independent Personalities in English. They were surging very late in the polling and we expect this trend to continue and propel them past Smer come election day. Here are the latest polling results from their perspective:
This mirrors another trend in global politics: Surprise results by populist parties, that often get underestimated in the polling prior to the election. Trump is a prime example of that, but the same is true for in many elections globally.
The rise of OľaNO also mirrors the trend of many people being increasingly sick and tired of career politicians. Their name Ordinary People and Independent Personalities is a symbol of exactly that.
Granted, events took a particularly extreme turn in that direction when investigative journalist Jan Kuciak (27) and his fiancé Martina Kusnirova (27) were shot on February 21, 2018 in their home in Western Slovakia, which sparked protests around the country with the biggest uprisings since the Velvet Revolutions gatherings in 1989.
These ultimately forced Prime Minister Robert Fico to resign, but he did remain head of Smer-SD. At the time they were polling at 25.5%, and it has been a downward trajectory ever since.
In many European countries the party landscape is severely fractured, a trend that has become especially pronounced in Germany, which gained roughly one extra major party every decade in the parliament since 1990.
The situation in Slovakia is even more chaotic, as the graph shows:
In fact seven parties are likely to make the 5% threshold, and possibly even eight.Back to top